VallesCaldera.com – The independent news source about the Valles Caldera

The Albuquerque Journal published an article today by John Fleck regarding the issue of a century of fire suppression in the Jemez, as well as what agencies plan to do about it in the coming years with funds from the the Consolidated Forest Landscape Restoration Project. Click here to read the story (if you are not a Journal subscriber, you will have to click the “trial access pass” button that appears when you click this link).

You can watch a video version of Mr. Fleck’s report by clicking below.

The hillside above Bob Parmenter was nothing but blackened sticks, a thick unhealthy forest that burned in a flash.

“When the fire hit this,” said Parmenter, lead scientist at the Valles Caldera National Preserve, “it just exploded.”

Nearby, Parmenter pointed to a forest where the outcome was remarkably different. Its overgrowth thinned several years ago, it too burned during the massive Las Conchas Fire. But instead of a forest-destroying blaze, the fire hugged the ground, clearing out the duff on the forest floor and leaving the big trees intact. A month after fire burned through the area, new blades of oatgrass were poking their heads out of the blackened forest floor.

In a prediction that augurs poorly for next summer’s fire season, forecasters are now projecting an average to dry 2011-2012 winter.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s latest models now predict that another la Niña (which results in a dry winter, like the one New Mexico just experienced) will develop in the fall, “with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter” (ENSO means “El Niño Southern Oscillation,” or the phenomenon that yields a heavy winter for us). In other words, therefore, this fall should be dry, and our winter should range from neutral (an average winter) to dry. Here is the release from the NWS:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were generally near average (Fig. 2), ranging from –0.2oC (Niño-3.4) to 0.5oC (Niño-1+2). However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña. For example, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and generally suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Thus, while tropical Pacific oceanic anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral, the atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Niña-like conditions.

The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts (indicated by thicker lines, Fig. 6), indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC). Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall (Fig. 7). This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter. Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

Bob Parmenter, the chief scientist at the Valles Caldera National Preserve, provided some insight today about our previous post, describing a blackened San Antonio River that smelled of ash this weekend, as well as a similarly dark and murky East Fork of the Jemez River.

Dr. Parmenter left the following voicemail with VallesCaldera.com today:

[The black flow coming out of the San Antonio] was an ash flow from a flash flood that originated up in Indios Creek Canyon. We had kind of hoped that we wouldn’t get hit that hard with a thunderstorm but we’ve actually had four floods come out of there since the 25th of July — which was the first one — and each one of those brings with it a large amount of ash and organic debris coming down from the burned areas of these watersheds. We’ve also had floods come off into the Rio San Antonio from Cerro Santa Rosa and Cerro Abrigo, and there’s been some ash flows into the Jaramillo Creek Area, which of course eventually will work its way down to the East Fork of the Jemez.

The areas that have not been hit are the upper East Fork of the Jemez in the Valle Grande and the Valle Toledo. The large expanses of grassland have mitigated that because the ash flows coming down the mountains spread out, and the grass filters it, and eventually stops the ash slurry from reaching the stream. So, at least at this point in time, those areas are OK.

But, yes, the Rio San Antonio has had major ash flows down that stream through the Rio San Antonio — through the Valle San Antonio — and we’ve noticed a lot of fish kills along the way, so that’s why we’ve pretty much closed fishing on the Preserve for the rest of the summer.

The now 100%-contained Las Conchas Fire transformed the Jemez Mountains’ normally clear and sparkling Valles Caldera-draining rivers into dark, ashy, and muddy waterways this weekend.

The San Antonio River was black on Saturday, and a witness stated that the creek “smelled like ash…like when you douse a fire with water.”

The Jemez’ second caldera-draining river, the East Fork of the Jemez River, did not emit such an aroma this weekend, but it was also much darker than usual. On Sunday, I walked from the home of VallesCaldera.com to the East Fork Box, and despite the dirty state of the river, I submerged myself in its cold waters for the first time since before the Las Conchas Fire ignited, which served as a joyful and refreshing homecoming to a river that had been off limits during this intense crisis.

The San Antonio rises in the charred Valle Toledo, while the East Fork’s headwaters are located on the far eastern side of the Valle Grande (which also burned). The confluence of both rivers can be seen at the tip of Battleship Rock, where the streams form the Jemez River (you can download a 360° panorama from the top of Battleship Rock here, and view all the rest of our panoramas here).

Below are a couple of photos of a darkened East Fork of the Jemez River running through the East Fork Box yesterday.

John Fleck of the Albuquerque Journal wrote an article Saturday on the impact of the fire on the watersheds of the Jemez Mountains. In the story, Fleck describes how ashy and muddy conditions in the Rio Grande (into which the Jemez’ streams flow) caused the city of Albuquerque to temporarily cease pumping water from the river for its drinking water last week. However, the city resumed diverting water from the Rio on Friday.

As an aside, the song “Black Muddy River,” by a well-known band from San Francisco, seems very appropriate for the state of the rivers that drain our sacred caldera. Click here to listen to the tune.

When the last bolt of sunshine hits the mountain
And the stars start to splatter in the sky
When the moon splits the southwest horizon
With the scream of an eagle on the fly
I will walk alone by the black muddy river
And listen to the ripples as they moan
I will walk alone by the black muddy river
And sing me a song of my own

The following release was sent out by the Santa Fe National Forest today:

(SANTA FE, NM)-The Española Ranger District Recreation Team on the Santa Fe National Forest will host two meetings this week to discuss the recent fires and how the public can get involved in rehabilitation projects conducted in the burn areas.

Work will not occur until conditions in the burn areas are determined to be safe.

Meetings scheduled:

Tuesday, August 2, 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at the REI Community Room, 500 Market St., Suite 100 in Santa Fe

Wednesday, August 3, 6:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. at the Los Alamos County Council Chambers in the Community Building, 475 20th St., (Ashley Pond) in Los Alamos

For more information please contact Jennifer A. Sublett, Volunteer Coordinator on the Espanola Ranger District, (505) 753-7331.